Extrapolating Forex Curves Using Linear Algebra Methods

Smoothed averages are indispensable for forex trading, at the advanced or a beginner's level.The smoothed average work well in a non volatile markers but remember that they are not always good for extrapolations (predictions)

Smoothed averages are indispensable for forex trading, at the advanced or a beginner's level.The smoothed average work well in a non volatile markers but remember that they are not always good for extrapolations (predictions) submitted by FX_Winner to Forex [link] [comments]

RBI & how its policies can start to affect the market

Disclaimer: This DD is to help start forming a market view as per RBI announcements. Also a gentle reminder that fundamentals play out over a longer time frame than intraday. The authors take no responsiblity for your yolos.
With contributions by Asli Bakchodi, Bran OP & dragononweed!

What is the RBI?
RBI is the central bank of India. They are one of the key players who affect India’s economic trajectory. They control currency supply, banking rules and more. This means that it is not a bank in which retailers or corporates can open an account with. Instead they are a bank for bankers and the Government of India.
Their functions can be broadly classified into 6.
· Monetary authority
· Financial supervisor for financial system
· Issuer of currency
· Manages Foreign exchange
· Bankers bank
· Banker to the government
This DD will take a look at each of these functions. It will be followed by a list of rates the RBI sets, and how changes in them can affect the market.
1. Monetary Authority
One of RBI’s functions is to achieve the goal of “Price Stability” in the economy. This essentially means achieving an inflation rate that is within a desired limit.
A monetary policy committee (MPC) decides on the desired inflation rate and its limits through majority vote of its 6 members, in consultation with the GoI.
The current inflation target for RBI is as follows
Consumer Price Inflation (CPI): 4%
Upper Limit: 6%
Lower Limit: 2%
An increase in CPI means less purchasing power. Generally speaking, if inflation is too high, the public starts cutting down on spending, leading to a negative impact on the markets. And vice versa. Lower inflation leads to more purchasing power, more spending, more investments leading to a positive impact on the market.
2. Financial Supervisor For Financial System
A financial system consists of financial markets (Capital market, money market, forex market etc.), financial institutions (banks, stock exchanges, NBFC etc) & financial assets (currencies, bills, bonds etc)
RBI supervises this entire system and lays down the rules and regulations for it. It can also use further ‘Selective Credit Controls’ to regulate banks.
3. Issues of currency
The RBI is responsible for the printing of currency notes. RBI is free to print as much as it wants as long as the minimum reserve of Rs 200 Cr (Gold 112 Cr) is maintained. The RBI has total assets or a balance size sheet of Rs. 51 trillion (April 2020). (1 Trillion = 1 Lakh crore)
India’s current reserves mean our increase in currency circulation is well managed.
4. Manages Foreign Exchange
RBI regulates all of India’s foreign exchange transactions. It is the custodian of all of foreign currencies in India. It allows for the foreign exchange value of the rupee to be controlled. RBI also buy and sell rupees in the foreign exchange market at its discretion.
In case of any currency movement, a country’s central bank can directly intervene to either push the currency up, as India has been doing, or to keep it artificially low, as the Chinese central bank does. To push up a currency, a central bank can sell dollars, which is the global reserve currency, or the currency against which all others are measured. To push down a currency, a central bank can buy dollars.
The RBI deciding this depends on the import/export and financial health of the country. Generally a weaker rupee means imports are more expensive, but are favourable for exports. And a stronger rupee means imports are cheaper but are unfavourable for exports.
A weaker rupee can make foreign investment more lucrative driving up FII. A stronger rupee can have an adverse effect of FII investing in markets.
5. Banker’s Bank
Every bank has to maintain a certain amount of reserve with the RBI. A certain percentage of a bank’s liabilities (anywhere between 3-15% as decided by RBI) has to be maintained in this account. This is called the Cash Reserve Ratio. This is determined by the MPC during the monetary policy review (which happens every six weeks at present).
It lends money from this reserve to other banks if they are short on cash, but generally, it is seen as a last resort move. Banks are encouraged to meet their shortfalls of cash from other resources.
6. Banker to the government
RBI is the entity that carries out ALL monetary transactions on behalf of the Government. It holds custody of the cash balance of the Government, gives temporary loans to both central and state governments and manages the debt operations of the central Government, through instruments of debt and the interest rates associated with them - like bonds.
The different rates set & managed by RBI
- Repo rate
The rate at which RBI is willing to lend to commercial banks is called as Repo Rate.
Banks sometimes need money for emergency or to maintain the SLR and CRR (explained below). They borrow this from RBI but have to pay some interest on it. The interest that is to be paid on the amount to the RBI is called as Repo Rate.
It does not function like a normal loan but acts like a forward contract. Banks have to provide collateral like government bonds, T-bills etc. Repo means Repurchase Option is the true meaning of Repo an agreement where the bank promises to repurchase these government securities after the repo period is over.
As a tool to control inflation, RBI increases the Repo Rate making it more expensive for banks to borrow from the RBI with a view to restrict availability of money. Exact opposite stance shall be taken in case of deflationary environment.
The change of repo rate is aimed to affect the flow of money in the economy. An increase in repo rate decreases the flow of money in the economy, while the decrease in repo rate increases the flow of money in the economy. RBI by changing these rates shows its stance to the economy at large whether they prioritize growth or inflation.
- Reverse Repo Rate
The rate at which the RBI is willing to borrow from the Banks is called as Reverse Repo Rate. If the RBI increases the reverse repo rate, it means that the RBI is willing to offer lucrative interest rate to banks to park their money with the RBI. Banks in this case agree to resell government securities after reverse repo period.
Generally, an increase in reverse repo rate that banks will have a higher incentive to park their money with RBI. It decreases liquidity, affecting the market in a negative manner. Decrease in reverse repo rate increases liquidity affecting the market in a positive manner.
Both the repo rate and reverse repo rate fall under the Liquidity Adjustment Facility tools for RBI.
- Cash reserve ratio (CRR)
Banks in India are required to deposit a specific percentage of their net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) in the form of CASH with the RBI. This minimum ratio (that is the part of the total deposits to be held as cash) is stipulated by the RBI and is known as the CRR or Cash Reserve Ratio. These reserves will not be in circulation at any point in time.
For example, if a bank had a NDTL (like current Account, Savings Account and Fixed Deposits) of 100Cr and the CRR is at 3%, it would have to keep 3Cr as Cash reserve ratio to the RBI. This amount earns no interest.
Currently it is at 3%. A lower cash ratio means banks can deposit just a lower amount and use the remaining money leading to higher liquidity. This translates to more money to invest which is seen as positive for the market. Inversely, a higher cash ratio equates to lower liquidity which translates to a negative market sentiment.
Thus, the RBI uses the CRR to control excess money flow and regulate liquidity in the economy.
- Statutory liquidity ratio (SLR)
Banks in India have to keep a certain percentage of their net demand and time liabilities WITH THEMSELVES. And this can be in the form of liquid assets like gold and government securities, not just cash. A lot of banks keep them in government bonds as they give a decent interest.
The current SLR ratio of 18.25%, which means that for every Rs.100 deposited in a bank, it has to invest Rs.18.50 in any of the asset classes approved by RBI.
A low SLR means higher levels of loans to the private sector. This boosts investment and acts as a positive sentiment for the market. Conversely a high SLR means tighter levels of credit and can cause a negative effect on the market.
Essentially, the RBI uses the SLR to control ease of credit in the economy. It also ensures that the banks maintain a certain level of funds to meet depositor’s demands instead of over liquidation.
- Bank Rate
Bank rate is a rate at which the Reserve Bank of India provides the loan to commercial banks without keeping any security. There is no agreement on repurchase that will be drawn up or agreed upon with no collateral as well. This is different from repo rate as loans taken with repo rate are taken on the basis of securities. Bank rate hence is higher than the repo rate.
Currently the bank rate is 4.25%. Since bank rate is essentially a loan interest rate like repo rate, it affects the market in similar ways.
- Marginal Cost of Funds based Lending Rate (MCLR)
This is the minimum rate below which the banks are not allowed to lend. Raising this rate, makes loans more expensive, drying up liquidity, affecting the market in a negative way. Similarly, lower MCLR rates will bring in high liquidity, affecting the market in a positive way.
MCLR is a varying lending rate instead of a single rate according to the kind of loans. Currently, the MCLR rate is between 6.65% - 7.15%
- Marginal Standing facility
Marginal Standing Facility is the interest rate at which a depository institution (generally banks) lends or borrows funds with another depository institution in the overnight market. Overnight market is the part of financial market which offers the shortest term loans. These loans have to be repaid the next day.
MSF can be used by a bank after it exhausts its eligible security holdings for borrowing under other options like the Liquidity adjustment facilities.
The MSF would be a penal rate for banks and the banks can borrow funds by pledging government securities within the limits of the statutory liquidity ratio.
The current rate stands at 4.25%. The effect it has on the market is synonymous with the other lending rates such as repo rate & bank rate.
- Loan to value ratio
The loan-to-value (LTV) ratio is an assessment of lending risk that financial institutions and other lenders examine before approving a mortgage. Typically, loan assessments with high LTV ratios are considered higher risk loans.
Basically, if a companies preferred form of collateral rises in value and leads the market (growing faster than the market), then the company will see the loans that it signed with higher LTV suddenly reduce (but the interest rate remains the same).
Let’s consider an example of gold as a collateral. Consider a loan was approved with gold as collateral. The market price for gold is Rs 2000/g, and for each g, a loan of Rs 1500 was given. (The numbers are simplified for understanding). This would put LTV of the loan at 1500/2000 = 0.75. Since it is a substantial LTV, say the company priced the loan at 20% interest rate.
Now the next year, the price of gold rose to Rs 3000/kg. This would mean that the LTV of the current loan has changed to 0.5 but the company is not obligated to change the interest rate. This means that even if the company sees a lot of defaults, it is fairly protected by the unexpected surge in the underlying asset. Moreover, since the underlying asset is more valuable, default rates for the loans goes down as people are more protective of the collateral they have placed.
The same scenario for gold is happening right now and is the reason for gold backed loan providers like MUTHOOT to hit ATHs as gold is leading the economy right now. Also, these in these scenarios, it also enables companies to offer additional loan on same gold for those who are interested Instead of keeping the loan amount same most of the gold loan companies.
Based on above, we can see that as RBI changes LTV for certain assets, we are in a position to identify potential institutions that could get a good Quarterly result and try to enter it early.
Conclusion
The above rates contain the ways in the Central Bank manages the monetary policy, growth and inflation in the country.
Its impact on Stock market is often seen when these rates are changed, they act as triggers for the intraday positions on that day. But overall, the outlook is always maintained on how the RBI sees the country is doing, and knee jerk reactions are limited to intraday positions. The long term stance is always well within the limits of the outlook the big players in the market are expecting.
The important thing to keep in mind is that the problems facing the economy needn’t be uni-dimensional. Problems with inflation, growth, liquidity, currency depreciation all can come together, for which the RBI will have to play a balancing role with all it powers to change these rates and the forex reserve. So the effect on the market needs to be given more thought than simply extrapolated as ‘rates go low, markets go up’.
But understanding these individual effects of these rates allows you to start putting together the puzzle of how and where the market and the economy could go.
submitted by crackedminds333 to IndianStreetBets [link] [comments]

How To Start Trading Forex Reddit

How To Start Trading Forex Reddit

How to trade Forex and be profitable

Hello and thank you for being here again!
In this article I want to show you how I structure my operations by trading in the currency market. If it can give you ideas or help you in your process, the objective of this post will be more than fulfilled. I will try to be as clear and direct as possible. I'll go point by point:
Index
  • 1. How to trade
  • 2. Intraday or swing trading in Forex?
  • 3. Automatic or Manual Forex Trading
  • 4. Is analysis the key to Forex trading?
  • 5. Learn to create robust trading strategies
  • 6. Best Forex Trading Strategies
    • 6.1. Trading strategies with very simple entry and exit criteria
    • 6.2. Systems with a not very high number of operations or trades
    • 6.3. Strategies with a controlled return/risk
  • 7. Establish connection and disconnection rules for your systems
  • 8. Diversify in Forex
  • 9. What currencies to trade on Forex
  • 10. Why invest (only) in Forex
  • 11. Steps to trade
  • 12. How to start as a professional trader (without knowing how to program)
>>>Start trading with Plus500: open a free account

1. How to trade the Forex Market

Focusing on the basics and keeping it simple. Let me explain, you don't have to rely on hyper-complex strategies, use the software that PETA it and put it on the server next to your broker ... you don't have to be the best programmer, much less get dirty on the graphics of your platform to win money in Forex.
You need systems. The systems work. Results-oriented companies and work methods are systems-based. You should start applying and creating systems because they will allow you:
  • Know what you can expect (return and risk) in results.
  • Measure what you do .
  • Know when what you are applying is stopping working.
Yes, that sitting in front of the computer, looking and saying "I think EUR / USD is going to rise" is the most common thing, but the normal thing here is to lose money. You need winning strategies to start the fight.

2. Intraday or swing trading in Forex?

This question is an interesting question and I make a small indent if you are just starting out. Swing trading are operations that usually last several days and when we talk about intraday or day trading we refer to operations that are closed on the same day.
Well, which one then? Like everything in life, it depends (we are). You have to learn that there is no “best for all”. In my case I combine both operations because I dedicate myself full time to this, but if you are just starting out or are one of the people who get stressed out with trading, I recommend that you focus on swing trading.
As you consolidate here you can start to scale and seek to diversify by doing intraday. But again, this is just something that I recommend based on my own experience and from people I have known over the years.

3. Automatic or Manual Forex Trading

Not all automated Forex trading systems are a panacea, nor are all discretionary or manual systems bad. Stop looking at it like that, we're only talking about execution. This is precisely why I am opting for automated execution. We could talk at length about this and if you find it interesting I can dedicate an article just to it. But think that automation is just how strategy is carried out. Whether this is a winner or a loser is the basis of everything.
Automating a losing strategy does not make it a winner, it is only about applying strategies that are profitable and ensuring that they are executed in the best way (in manual we always cheat alone).

4. Is analysis the key to Forex trading?

Many people think that technical analysis is the key to beating the market and defend it to the last consequences. The same happens with those who think that the only way to make money in the foreign exchange market is through fundamental analysis.
So what really works? What really works and you can check. What good is it if you tell me that this or the other is the best method if you haven't even sat down to draw numbers. Many times it is not with what, but how. That is, they can be different valid methods if they are done well. But for this you need statistics of what you are doing.
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5. Learn to create robust trading strategies

Let's first see what a robust trading strategy is all about. As traders, we know what has happened in the past, but we don't know what will happen in the market tomorrow. That is why we need systems that are well adapted to changing market circumstances.
How can we know systems adapt well to alterations in the spread, prices ...? Simulating those alterations, something like simulating those conditions and seeing how they behave. There are different tests for this such as: Walk Forward test, Montecarlo, and Multimarket.
These tests give us an idea of ​​how robust our created trading system is and give us a reference. Be careful, I said reference, not absolute truth. Then we will test them, our goal is to leave as little space as possible to chance.

6. Best Forex Trading Strategies

You may be wondering how you are going to manage to create profitable strategies and start with all this. Calm down, there are tools for this, but the important thing here is that you know that the strategies that tend to be more stable over time and give better results are:

6.1. Trading strategies with very simple entry and exit criteria

The opposite of what you may have been told. The simpler our Forex trading systems are, the more likely they will continue to work overtime. I have seen this myself and I know it first hand.
Also, which is more likely to stop working, a system based on six indicators or a system based on one or two? That six indicators continue to give results for years and years is not easy. Instead, only one or two are more so. Still, trading systems should always be supervised.

6.2. Systems with a not very high number of operations or trades

Sometimes when we become obsessed with being in the market constantly making gazillions of trades, we are giving our broker money and taking it out of our pocket. More is not better in trading, better is better. This is about getting the most money with the least risk, not giving it to your broker.

6.3. Strategies with a controlled return/risk

You see a strategy, you look at its profit in the last months and years and you are already thinking about connecting it. Error, always look at the return associated with the drawdown. The drawdown of your system is, in short, the maximum consecutive drop it has had. Because it is important? Because if that fall has occurred in the past, it can happen again (and bigger, believe me). Now you may be thinking, what if this happens to me?
Next, I will explain it to you, but first an example of a system that meets all these characteristics (so you can see that it is simpler than it seems:
https://preview.redd.it/cozy880jl9v51.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8e14a68538372be8e7ae109d86cd7d132d60fa07
Here more statistics:
https://preview.redd.it/hh5m7saml9v51.jpg?width=997&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f1597e3b05350d6fca1ea68ef18004f4340e6a1a

7. Establish connection and disconnection rules for your systems

All methods of trading sound great. The problem is when they start to lose. Some tell you that you have to continue, that the system is the system… But what if the system is stopping working? After all, we live in a changing world and our money is not infinite.
The reality is that many people do not know how to determine when the system is failing or when this happens because they are applying it incorrectly. If you execute the strategies in an automated way you are already saving this, then what you need is a rule to deactivate your strategies at a certain point. To do this, it is enough to monitor them with platforms such as Bluefox or Myfxbook to know what the performance of each is.

8. Diversify in Forex

If we deactivate a Rubén strategy, we stop trading. Not if you activate another that has been doing it well. It is not about you running a Forex trading system or two, it is about having different systems: the best in real and a demo base created that you can include in your real account when you deactivate one because their performance has dropped.
You can diversify by you I frame (temporality time) on assets (currencies) or types of systems (trend, mean reversion ...).
The objective of diversifying is to seek a more stable return, many people do for this is to introduce many systems without more, if you do this you will achieve the opposite, you will be increasing the risk.

9. What currencies to trade on Forex

I recommend that you focus on the majors or major currency pairs, especially if your broker has a high spread, as it is usually lower on these. One of the advantages of automating is that you can scale your trading and do it in different currencies, diversifying as I said before. These are the assets that I have traded in recent months:
https://preview.redd.it/4myzmwlxl9v51.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=7635d085d2b434e3d3da0420937c245b6cd21339
It starts with being profitable with a few (one or three assets) and as you evolve you can grow your portfolio.

10. Why invest (only) in Forex

I will not be the one to tell you that you should invest in Forex and not in another market. Each one belongs to his father and mother and has its good and not so good things. Of course, one thing is clear, wherever you do it, remember the power of specialization. There are traders who focus on one or two assets and they are profitable. In the end, that's what it's all about, isn't it?
This operation can be extrapolated to different assets such as raw materials, indices and cryptocurrencies. Yes, cryptocurrencies too. In fact, my operations are mainly based on currencies and cryptocurrencies (85% in the first group and 15% in the second). But I have to say that cryptocurrency trading has given me a pleasant surprise this year.
Again, if you are starting, do not do it with many assets or you will saturate yourself. Start step by step and diversify as you evolve. Jack of all trades, master of none.

11. Steps to trade Forex Reddit

If you've gotten this far, it may not be entirely clear to you how the hell I trade, then I'm going to summarize it in steps:
  1. I create statistically profitable trading strategies and verify through tests that they are robust.
  2. I put them on a demo account to make sure they work perfectly.
  3. Once they meet the requirements that I demand of them, I pass them to real.
  4. In real account, I manage my systems connecting and disconnecting them according to their performance (always under objective criteria).

12. How to start trading Forex Reddit as a professional trader (without knowing how to program)

But Rubén, I haven't studied computer science and I'm not particularly good at math. Don't worry if you don't know how to program, it is possible to do all this using tools that will do it for you. For years I have programmed my own systems myself and that's fine, but now I'm concentrating on managing them and getting the most out of them. Do not think that this is the robot that will make you earn millions of euros while you drink the gin and tonic on the beach.
We will read soon with new posts about trading, Forex, cryptocurrencies, platforms ...
Good luck!
To start trading, open an account on Plus500, one of the leading Forex brokers: Click Here
submitted by kayakero to makemoneyforexreddit [link] [comments]

When will we bottom out?

PART 2 : https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/g0sd44/what_is_the_bottom/
PART 3: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/g2enz2/why_the_printer_must_continue/
Edit: By popular demand, the too long didn't read is now at the top
TL;DR
SPY 220p 11/20
This will likely be a multi-part series. It should be noted that I am no expert by any means, I'm actually quite new to this, it is just an elementary analysis of patterns in price and time. I am not a financial advisor, and this is not advice for a person to enter trades upon.
The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this DD, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. We will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY).
In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing.
The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors.
Markets ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature
Markets rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market.
According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains.
We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The market is technically open 24-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy.
Some important terms to keep in mind:
§ Discrete – terminal points at the extremes of ranges
§ Secondary Discrete – quantified retracement or correction between two discrete
§ Longs (asset appreciation) and shorts (asset depreciation)
- Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
§ Volume – derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes because of levels of fear. Allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. Volume is also useful for swing trading, as chances for swing’s validity increases if an increase in volume is seen on and after the swing’s activation.
Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 23rd of March, we can safely determine that a low WAS NOT reached.
§ VIX – Volatility Index, this technical indicator indicates level of fear by the amount of options-based “insurance” in portfolios. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX.
As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend is imminent.
– Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail.
Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form.
A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw an uptrend line on the SPY chart, but it is possible to correctly draw a downtrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards.
Now that we have determined that the overall trend is downwards, the next issue is the question of when SPY will bottom out.
Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding.
Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading.
Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure.
Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price.
Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not.
We will complete our analysis of time by measuring it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in.
What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
Yearly Lows: 12/31/2000, 9/21/2001, 10/9/2002, 3/11/2003, 8/2/2004, 4/15/2005, 6/12/2006, 3/5/2007, 11/17/2008, 3/9/2009, 7/2/10, 10/3/11, 1/1/12, 1/1/13, 2/3/14, 9/28/15, 2/8/16, 1/3/17, 12/24/18, 6/3/19
Months: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 4, 6, 6, 7, 8, 9, 9, 10, 10, 11, 12, 12
Days: 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 5, 8, 9, 9, 11, 12, 15, 17, 21, 24, 28, 31
Monthly Lows: 3/23, 2/28, 1/27, 12/3, 11/1, 10/2, 9/3, 8/5, 7/1, 6/3, 5/31, 4/1
Days: 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 5, 23, 27, 27, 31
Weighted Times are repetitions which appears multiple times within the same list, observed and accentuated once divided into relevant sections of the histogram. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points*.*
We see that SPY tends to have its lows between three major month clusters: 1-4, primarily March (which has actually occurred already this year), 6-9, averaged out to July, and 10-12, averaged out to November. Following the same methodology, we get the third and tenth days of the month as the likeliest days. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the end of the month has replaced the average of the tenth. Therefore, we have four primary dates for our histogram.
7/3/20, 7/27/20, and 11/3/20, 11/27/20 .
How do we narrow this group down with any accuracy? Let us average the days together to work with two dates - 7/15/20 and 11/15/20.
The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model – states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is April 14th of 2022. However, we can time-shift to other peaks and troughs to determine a date for this year. If we consider 1/28/2018 as a localized high and apply this model, we get 3/23/20 as a low - strikingly accurate. I have chosen the next localized high, 9/21/2018 to apply the model to. We achieve a date of 11/14/2020.
The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of the bear market - roughly speaking.
Therefore, our timeline looks like:
As we move forward in time, our predictions may be less accurate. It is important to keep in mind that this analysis will likely change and become more accurate as we factor in Terry Laundry’s T-Theory, the Bradley Cycle, a more sophisticated analysis of Bull and Bear Market Cycles, the Fundamental Investor Cyclic Approach, and Seasons and Half-Seasons.
I have also assumed that the audience believes in these models, which is not necessary. Anyone with free time may construct histograms and view these time models, determining for themselves what is accurate and what is not. Take a look at 1/28/2008, that localized high, and 2.15 years (1/4th of the sinusoidal wave of the model) later.
The question now is, what prices will SPY reach on 11/14? Where will we be at 7/28? What will happen on 4/14/22?
submitted by aibnsamin1 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people.
The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets.
Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.

Stock Market Crash

The Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially.
All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity.
Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses.
Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely.
So, why inflate the economy so much?
Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value.
Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat.
Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis.
Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.

Economic Analysis of Bitcoin

The reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero.
Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology.
Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value.
Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block.
Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer.
Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed.
Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public.
A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved.
Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely.
Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.

Trading or Investing?

The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY).
In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing.
The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors.
Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature
Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market.
According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains.
We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.

Technical Indicator Analysis of Bitcoin

Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
  • Volume – derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume for stocks is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. This does not occur with BTC, as it is open twenty-four-seven. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes (peaks and troughs) because of levels of fear. Volume allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. Volume is also useful for swing trading, as chances for swing’s validity increases if an increase in volume is seen on and after the swing’s activation. Volume is steadily decreasing. Lows and highs are reached when volume is lower.
Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 12th of March, we can safely determine that a low for BTC was not reached.
  • VIX – Volatility Index, this technical indicator indicates level of fear by the amount of options-based “insurance” in portfolios. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. VIX is essentially useless for BTC as BTC-based options do not exist. It allows us to predict the market low for $SPY, which will have an indirect impact on BTC in the short term, likely leading to the yearly low. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX.
As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend for the S&P 500 is imminent.
  • RSI (Relative Strength Index): The most important technical indicator, useful for determining highs and lows when time symmetry is not availing itself. Sometimes analysis of RSI can conflict in different time frames, easiest way to use it is when it is at extremes – either under 30 or over 70. Extremes can be used for filtering highs or lows based on time-and-price window calculations. Highly instructive as to major corrective clues and indicative of continued directional movement. Must determine if longer-term RSI values find support at same values as before. It is currently at 73.56.
  • Secondly, RSI may be used as a high or low filter, to observe the level that short-term RSI reaches in counter-trend corrections. Repetitions based on market movements based on RSI determine how long a trade should be held onto. Once a short term RSI reaches an extreme and stay there, the other RSI’s should gradually reach the same extremes. Once all RSI’s are at extreme highs, a trend confirmation should occur and RSI’s should drop to their midpoint.

Trend Definition Analysis of Bitcoin

Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail.
Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form.
A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.

Time Symmetry Analysis of Bitcoin

Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding.
Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading.
Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure.
Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price.
Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not.
We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in.
What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
  • Yearly Lows (last seven years): 1/1/13, 4/10/14, 1/15/15, 1/17/16, 1/1/17, 12/15/18, 2/6/19
  • Monthly Mode: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 12
  • Daily Mode: 1, 1, 6, 10, 15, 15, 17
  • Monthly Lows (for the last year): 3/12/20 (10:00pm), 2/28/20 (7:09am), 1/2/20 (8:09pm), 12/18/19 (8:00am), 11/25/19 (1:00am), 10/24/19 (2:59am), 9/30/19 (2:59am), 8/29,19 (4:00am), 7/17/19 (7:59am), 6/4/19 (5:59pm), 5/1/19 (12:00am), 4/1/19 (12:00am)
  • Daily Lows Mode for those Months: 1, 1, 2, 4, 12, 17, 18, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
  • Hourly Lows Mode for those Months (Military time): 0100, 0200, 0200, 0400, 0700, 0700, 0800, 1200, 1200, 1700, 2000, 2200
  • Minute Lows Mode for those Months: 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 09, 09, 59, 59, 59, 59
  • Day of the Week Lows (last twenty-six weeks):
Weighted Times are repetitions which appears multiple times within the same list, observed and accentuated once divided into relevant sections of the histogram. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points
Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows.
Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram.
1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21
2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm
In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations.
The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year!
Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market.
Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020.
The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX.
Therefore, our timeline looks like:
  • 2/14/20 – yearly high ($10372 USD)
  • 3/12/20 – yearly low thus far ($3858 USD)
  • 5/9/20 – T-Theory true yearly low (BTC between 4863 and 3569)
  • 5/26/20 – hashrate difficulty halvening
  • 11/14/20 – stock market low
  • 1/15/21 – yearly low for BTC, around $8528
  • 8/19/21 – end of stock bear market
  • 11/26/21 – eighteen months from halvening, average peak from halvenings (BTC begins rising from $3000 area to above $23,312)
  • 4/23/22 – all-time high
Taken from my blog: http://aliamin.info/2020/
submitted by aibnsamin1 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

How we plan technical trades in anticipation of high impact news.

How we plan technical trades in anticipation of high impact news.
When we have high impact news events, we have a pretty sure 'known'. That is, the market will probably move fast.
In this posts I'll cover how we use this information to plan technical trades in fast moving markets driven by news releases.

I've explained various times in many ways how there are parts of market cycles in which is it a common tendency for markets to move fast. What we look for is setups that imply a fast moving market. From there we can extrapolate what sort of price action we may see if price moves fast, and where our smart areas of engagement will be.

So you can see this being done from fresh analysis, I'll use a pair I've not posted analysis on previous and have no current analysis I have not shared. In fact, I'll be using a pair I've not looked at in multiple years.


I've not been trading Canadian dollar for a long time. Not been following it. Not even peeked in on it from time to time. Since I see there is Cad interest rates, I now expect there to be the possibility of there being opportunities in this currency.

https://preview.redd.it/6b8d857c53v31.png?width=576&format=png&auto=webp&s=1295d34129ac6e4d6857e0148e339f91f55262ec

First thing I want to do is see if there is anything I can marry up with the cad news that goes along with the general mood I think we have in the markets. I think we're entering into risk off markets. This tells me there may be weakness in Cad. It also tells me I want to trade it against 'safe' currencies. My go to here is Yen, but since I already have extensive Yen analysis I will use another. I'll use CHF (another currency I've not been following).

So, before I open the chart I have a few things in mind.

  • I am looking for possible volatile and strong one way moves.
  • I'm looking for opportunities to short the risk currency against the safe currency.
  • If there is to be a big trend move, I am looking for whipsaws to make it hard for most people to follow.

Before I even open the charts, I have a pretty good idea one of my best setups I can see here is the foreshadowing of a ping swing. https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/ctifde/forecasting_the_end_of_major_corrections_and/



https://preview.redd.it/3rwsleup63v31.png?width=1356&format=png&auto=webp&s=46f35e3c9d195bf29d11cc4a9163606f0bc4ca6d
And will wonders never cease ... there is it.

I further know before the ping swing happens, the market is probably going to want to punk everyone. It's just what it does. This tells me I can probably find risk efficient opportunities if the market dips in the run up to the news event.

Lo and behold, I also find in this messy looking range the formations of harmonic patterns indicating to me if price drops to this level I have buying opportunities where I can use small stops and target the big RR ping swing move.

https://preview.redd.it/54zxsc1e73v31.png?width=1360&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f7a85e4d0b8439a4305b05cea029674bfbd7339
And boom!
I have my trade plan.

If I see sharp dips to the lows completing the harmonics, I buy.
If I see sharp rallies to spike out the 61.8 I sell.
I know very specifically my areas of engagement if the market moves fast. A lot of this I can do with limit orders.

If either of these swings happen, I'll do pretty well. If they both happen, I will bank.
If neither one of these happen, I'll do nothing ... and all I've lost is the 10 minutes it took me to mark out my areas of engagement.

Simple as that.
Bring on the news.
submitted by whatthefx to TradingAlerts [link] [comments]

Always Be Updated With The Latest News When Trading

Always Be Updated With The Latest News When Trading
To make worthwhile investments in foreign exchange, It’s miles critical to don’t forget the economic and political occasions in one of a kind countries. factors that have an impact on the currency quotes are unemployment, the change stability, GDP and the development of the sector of products and services. These types of indicators are used to determine exactly the tendency of a cost inside the quick, medium and long term.
The primary indicators forex trading
It is important to know the information to make worthwhile investments in foreign exchange and as a result assume the upward thrust or fall of a forex.
Screen monetary signs
The fee of a currency relies upon on certain financial signs along with:
  • The unemployment fee
  • The GDP
  • Data of consumption
  • The exchange balance
  • The inflation fee
  • Modifications inside the tertiary area
  • The hobby of the crucial bank
The two most crucial indicators to remember are the hobby price and the extent of change balance that display the difference among the extent of products imported and exported at those quotes.
If the extent of imports increases, the cost of the currency will trend downward. Exports increase the national economic system and revalue the local currency. The hobby charge is a great indicator to measure the financial situation globally. This fee is reviewed monthly by the Fed, the eu financial institution or the financial institution of britain. A higher hobby price way that the usa is in a high-quality economy.

https://preview.redd.it/6k0avday6lz31.jpg?width=3000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4e76365d474fc2b5987cb4952cf8b0cc74bcc42b
An boom inside the fee draws foreign buyers. statistics on consumption determine the shopping electricity of the populace. accordingly, during the economic disaster of 2009, the usa, confined the recession, their figures for consumption, for that reason offsetting the level of inflation and excessive unemployment.
The indicator of the level of debt
Investors performing long time forex transactions have to affirm the debt ratio of a rustic. A debt index method that the excessive populace incurs debt and invests or consumes extra. However, if human beings avoid stepping into debt in the long term, the USA will pass through an monetary crisis within the coming years.
Observe the results of financial surveys
Investigations and surveys are used to measure the monetary outlook for the coming months. In Europe, the ZEW provides this through studying the various marketplace traits.
Within the usa, Chicago Pmi determines the country companies based totally in Chicago. consequences obtained on this metropolis may be extrapolated to the country wide stage The internet Tic measures the float of cash among the U.S. dollar and sure currencies.
A big dollar buy by way of foreign organizations shows a good sized dynamism of the U.S. economic system. Traders can view the results of surveys of patron self belief within the economic system of his USA. However, the net Tic isn’t a very reliable indicator.
Seek advice from specialised media
Television channels and newspapers dedicated totally to the monetary sector have to be consulted every day. Some channels offer continuous facts on the important thing financials. Their services are available only subscription. buyers may also subscribe to magazines to get informed by using the evaluation of expected tendencies from economic specialists. These diverse journals are to be had at the buying and selling structures.
The trader ought to also examine through other traders. several boards are powered by using heaps of skilled traders and provide loose facts which may be in particular beneficial.
Sooner or later we need to stress the truth that the news substantially influences the foreign exchange market. The investor need to no longer forget about technical analysis to measure the conduct of competing traders. The analysis is based totally on graphs of worldwide trends on the fall or rise of a currency. The quality dealer is able to research the overall monetary facts and technical records to increase an effective strategy. Usually be updated with the state-of-the-art information whilst trading.
submitted by SyedaHabiba to u/SyedaHabiba [link] [comments]

Python programming: 100% automated robot that scrapes & post deals on Twitter and Instagram

Hello All, I would like to share a little project I have been doing just programming with python. The main objectives of posting it here are to:
  1. Get ideas on how to improve it?
  2. How to monetise it?
  3. Could this experiment be extrapolated to something bigger?
Background:
I have always been interested in programming until 2 years ago when I started learning machine learning with Python. My methodology was simple: I needed an objective or project and work towards that. So I joined several Kaggle competitions and got myself quite motivated about it in parallel to my daily job. I work as an engineer (12+ years experience) in a high tech industry and was easy to me to understand and apply the mathematical and practical foundations of machine learning. After I built some know-how I started doing some other things in parallel to my job, web scrapping, applying machine learning to stock exchange and forex to identify opportunities, web scrapping in big retail companies to identify seasonal products and opportunities, etc.
Then I started learning Flask but realised that web development can be quite tough due to is a very dynamic world and some concepts do not respond to logic, but still working on it. All this with the main objective of building something in parallel with my day job. I have lots of ideas but realised that all of them were quite big and would not be able to do it on my own.
The reason I do not leave my current job and dedicate to one of this big projects with more people is: I love my job, I have a great work/life balance and I consider myself well paid and I have not found people with the same drivers as myself. However, I have a strong entrepreneur spirit and am always looking for opportunities to build in the side. So I decided to start a little project, small monetisation, but something that worked and that would not take me too long to construct or to maintain.
The Project:
This is basically a 100% automated robot that follows this sequence:
1.- Web Scrapping into a “Retail company X” deals to get all data related to product, time left for the deal, discount, price, etc. mainly in Technology.
2.- Sort all the deals by discount giving higher weight on the most expensive products
3.- Get the deals one by one and produce one banner with the main picture of the photo, the product, some text to advertise it, the discount, etc.
4.- Post it in Twitter and Instagram with some text and funny emoticons.
So the robot is creating one post every hour from 8:00 to 24:00. There are some rules like it will never post one product twice and before posting is scrapping all the deals, removing duplicates, sorting, etc.
Then I have a couple of robots that are following people with similar interests, and also giving likes and favourites based on hashtags in both Twitter and Instagram. I am trying to control this since I don’t want to create lots of spam. This is how a typical post looks like, currently only in Spanish:
https://imgur.com/a/56LfIww
It took me about a week working at night to build the program above. Currently I am trying to monetise it with “Retail Company X Affiliates” and building enough followers to start generating some interest from other vendors.
The robot is 100% automated and requires minor maintenance. All this is running in a Raspberry Pi 3B+ and my plan is to leave it running for several months and see results. Currently I have been running it for 5 days and I already have nearly 300 followers (probably low quality followers).
Please, could you let me know your thoughts about it, how to improve it, how to monetise it and/or how to extrapolate this to a more commercial business?
Thanks for your help!
Benito
submitted by BenitoCamelasVG to Entrepreneur [link] [comments]

Trading Edu

Apologies if wrong subreddit but curious if anyone could assist or point me in the right direction. Looking to continue learning TA tools/concepts. Are there YT vids or material that you’ve used that’s been beneficial for more advanced education on trading? I know investopedia sells a course for around $400 but didn’t know if it was just a money grab or it’s worth the price tag. I know how to utilize TA tools like EMA,TK,Elliot, Stoch RSI, MACD, Bollinger bands and Fib but know nothing about harmonics or other advanced concepts and feel like I’m being pretty naive in thinking what I already know is sufficient enough to be consistently day trading or swing trading with. Would like to extrapolate what I know and test other types of trading like stock, options or forex but know I’m just asking to get rekt with thinking what I currently know is sufficient enough. any suggestions or thoughts is appreciated!
submitted by WB523 to investing [link] [comments]

Trading Edu

Apologies if wrong subreddit but curious if anyone could assist or point me in the right direction. Looking to continue learning TA tools/concepts. Are there YT vids or material that you’ve used that’s been beneficial for more advanced education on trading? I know investopedia sells a course for around $400 but didn’t know if it was just a money grab or it’s worth the price tag. I know how to utilize TA tools like EMA,TK,Elliot, Stoch RSI, MACD, Bollinger bands and Fib but know nothing about harmonics or other advanced concepts and feel like I’m being pretty naive in thinking what I already know is sufficient enough to be consistently day trading or swing trading with. Would like to extrapolate what I know and test other types of trading like stock, options or forex but know I’m just asking to get rekt with thinking what I currently know is sufficient enough. any suggestions or thoughts is appreciated!
submitted by WB523 to personalfinance [link] [comments]

Altcoin Node Deployment & Fiat-to-Cryptocurrency Exchanges company in India

Altcoin Node Deployment & Fiat-to-Cryptocurrency Exchanges company in India
Just like full nodes in a cryptocurrency, masternodes can be run by anyone. However, there is an entry barrier in place to ensure that the system doesn’t get malicious. The entry barrier is what one needs to commit or collateralize certain units of that particular cryptocurrency to runa master node.
Your hardware is secure in our facility. Security systems, redundant CCTV, Full Insurance including Client Machines. Monitoring software and automation system available with VPN access.
Our entire team is committed to your success, with automated systems monitoring and more. Our goal is keeping your machines mining. On site support during business hours and 24/7 emergency maintenance response.

https://preview.redd.it/9ose9zvmqoh21.jpg?width=990&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=626636fdff9945639138d4e28c13de6341a44a1b
Fiat-to-Cryptocurrency Exchanges
Cryptocurrency Exchange?
A crypto exchange is an online website that provides a platform for the buying, selling or exchange of cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, ether and litecoin for fiat money like USD, EUR and GBP.
Types of Cryptocurrency Exchanges
There are basically three different types of cryptocurrency exchange platforms. The difference is due to what determines the price of the cryptocoin on the exchange platform.
Trading Platforms
These websites are marketplace where potential buyers and sellers of cryptocurrency can place “buy” or “sell” orders. The buyers and sellers do not interact with each other. Each person only interacts with the platform. The service charges fees upon the conclusion of every transaction.
Peer-to-Peer (P2P) Exchange Platforms
Instead of interacting solely with the platform, these services connect buyers and sellers directly. There are no fixed market prices as everything depends on the two parties coming to an agreement. The role of the cryptocurrency exchange is to provide escrow and transaction mediation services.

https://preview.redd.it/i3161q3oqoh21.jpg?width=343&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8f17b5c87199744c47d628515a95df20a0d6e41f
Crypto Brokers
These function like forex broker services. Potential buyers can visit these platforms and purchase cryptocurrencies. Broker sets the price of the cryptocoins.
Smart Contract
Like many ideas in the blockchain industry, a general confusion shrouds so called 'smart contracts'. A new technology made possible by public blockchains, smart contracts are difficult to understand because the term partly confuses the core interaction described. While a standard contract outlines the terms of a relationship (usually one enforceable by law), a smart contract enforces a relationship with cryptographic code. Put differently, smart contracts are programs that execute exactly as they are set up to by their creators.
Smart contracts are self-executing contracts with the terms of the agreement between buyer and seller is directly written into lines of code. The code and the agreements contained therein exist across a distributed, Blockchain network.
How smart contracts work
It’s worth noting that bitcoin was the first to support basic smart contracts in the sense that the network can transfer value from one person to another. The network of nodes will only validate transactions if certain conditions are met.
But, bitcoin is limited to the currency use case. By contrast, ethereum replaces bitcoin's more restrictive language (a scripting language of a hundred or so scripts) and replaces it with a language that allows developers to write their own programs.
Ethereum allows developers to program their own smart contracts or 'autonomous agents', as the ethereum white paper calls them. The language is 'Turing-complete', meaning it supports a broader set of computational instructions.

https://preview.redd.it/2iterpbpqoh21.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=31a179bc2465847cd91bb5d96d295d52c790cd56
Smart contracts can:

  • +Function as 'multi-signature' accounts, so that funds are spent only when a required percentage of people agree
  • Manage agreements between users. lets say, if one buys insurance from the other
  • Provide utility to other contracts (similar to how a software library works)
  • Store information about an application, such as domain registration information or membership records.
Strength in numbers
📷

  • Extrapolating that last point, smart contracts are likely to need assistance from other smart contracts.
  • When someone places a simple bet on the temperature on a hot summer day, it might trigger a sequence of contracts under the hood.
  • One contract would use outside data to determine the weather and another contract could settle the bet based on the information it received from the first contract when the conditions are met.
Running each contract requires ether transaction fees, which depend on the amount of computational power required
Thanks for reading our content. To know more about our services, please visit our website:
Mr Antony Selvan
http://www.cryptoappfactory.com/
[email protected]
101, Kumaran Colony, Vadapalani, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India-600026
+91-7397224461
submitted by cryptoappfactory to u/cryptoappfactory [link] [comments]

Crypto Trading Edu

Looking to continue learning TA tools/concepts. Are there YT vids or material that you’ve used that’s been beneficial for more advanced education on trading? I know investopedia sells a course for around $400 but didn’t know if it was just a money grab or it’s worth the price tag. I know how to utilize TA tools like EMA,TK,Elliot, Stoch RSI, MACD, Bollinger bands and Fib but know nothing about harmonics or other advanced concepts and feel like I’m being pretty naive in thinking what I already know is sufficient enough to be consistently successful day trading or swing trading with. Would like to extrapolate what I know and test other types of trading like stock or forex but know I’m just asking to get rekt with thinking what I currently know is sufficient enough. any suggestions or thoughts is appreciated!
submitted by WB523 to CryptoCurrencyTrading [link] [comments]

Financial Times: Time to take the Bitcoin bubble seriously.

FT
Text of article:
It is time to take the Bitcoin bubble seriously By John Authers
The moment has come to take Bitcoin seriously. This month has seen notes on the online currency from mainstream foreign exchange analysts at Wall Street banks Citi and BofA Merrill Lynch. When Wall Street has to take bitcoin seriously, the online currency has arrived.
However, governments and central banks are also now taking bitcoin seriously. This week has also brought news that Baidu, the Chinese search engine, would no longer accept bitcoins as payment, after the People’s Bank of China ruled that Chinese banks should not process or insure bitcoin transactions.
So should investors also be taking bitcoins seriously? There are two levels to this question, as bitcoin aims to take at least two of the roles played by a currency; first as a store of value, and second as a means of exchange.
Its role as a store of value is encouraged by its founding computer algorithms, which guarantee continued scarcity. This gives it an appeal compared to “fiat” money, created for governments by central banks, where there is no limit on supply.
But, unlike fiat money, nobody is legally required to accept it. As Brown Brothers Harriman’s forex analyst Marc Chandler points out, creating such money remains a monopoly of governments. They are not likely to give it up. Therefore its value rests on perception – what people think it is worth. The same is true of gold. But millennia of history demonstrate that humans perceive some intrinsic value in a shiny metal. Bitcoins have only been around since 2009.
BofA Merrill Lynch’s heroic assumptions suggest that at very best bitcoins might one day gain a reputation to equal that of silver, which is perceived as worth only a sixtieth of gold. That implies a total value of about $5bn – far below its recent implicit valuation of $13bn.
However, as a means of exchange, bitcoin’s layers of cryptographic defences, the ability to pay instantly, and the security that comes with the ability to trace each transaction made with each coin, all offer intriguing advantages.
So far, it is not widely accepted. But this year’s hubbub of excitement over the currency suggests that it could be.
Merrill’s grand back-of-an-envelope estimate is that it might account for as much as 10 per cent of global online transactions, and of international worker remittances (which would again be a remarkable success). On that basis, bitcoins could fund annual transactions worth $9.5bn in today’s money. It is easy to poke fun at such huge extrapolations, but hard to come up with anything better. In any case, the point of Merrill’s guesswork is that even if bitcoin is as successful as it is possible now to imagine, it looks overvalued at recent prices. It is in a bubble.
But this does not prove that the concept has no future. Shares in Amazon.com were also in a bubble in the late 1990s, and yet proved a great long-term investment after the bubble burst. Wild swings in value are typical when new technologies arrive.
Built-in scarcity
There is a further problem. Bitcoin, as Citi’s Stephen Englander points out, is replicable. The genius of the new currency is that it has built-in scarcity. But if the concept catches on as a means of payment, then demand will increase, and that scarcity will get in the way of its ability to function as a means of payment. It is not possible to conjure up a new precious metal to deal with this problem. But it is possible to conjure up new online currencies and that is already happening.
This could be an investment opportunity. Rather than an alternative to fiat currencies, bitcoin has a role in a critical trend; the disintermediation of banks. African tribesmen can now pay each other using their mobile phones, without involving a bank. Crowdsourcing systems raise loans over the internet without involving a bank. Internet currencies are part of the same trend.
Does bitcoin have first-mover advantage? Will other currencies be able to compete? Again, compare with Amazon. It used its first-mover advantage to become the dominant online retailer, as did Ebay in online auctions. Yet both contended with plenty of me-too rivals who were briefly valued very richly by the stock market. In internet search, first-mover advantage was no use to AltaVista, for a year or two as dominant as Google was to become. The same proved true for MySpace among social networks, or AOL among internet service providers. It is too soon to bet that bitcoin will be the hegemonic online currency, but there is plenty of time to bet on its competitors.
Where does this leave us? Foreign exchange analysts agree, mostly off the record, that Bitcoin is not worthy of being treated as a real currency.
Buying bitcoins while their price is so bubbly is nothing more than a gamble. Investing in other online currencies, or in companies that can help the bitcoin economy develop, looks like a sensible use of a venture capitalist’s money.
TIL: investing is filled with Luddites.
submitted by infant- to investing [link] [comments]

Little Known AI Company Makes World Debut In Front Of United Nations

Founded by William J D West around 5 years ago and developed in stealth mode since then, Invacio is a tech company unlike any other in the world and because of this, it is attracting attention from some fairly high up places. Governmental discussions are ongoing around the world to implement their technology in various ways.
But what is it exactly that invacio do that instigated the invitation to make their worldwide debut presentation (coming out if you will) in front of world leaders at the UNESCAP FDI meeting in Thailand on November the 3rd last year?
The answer to that is quite hard to formulate without going off on multiple tangents all at once, so, I will give a brief outline and then try to cover some more specifics in order that you can try to paint the picture for yourself more clearly…All I will say before launching into this is open your mind and try to see all the potential uses of this technology.
Invacio is primarily an applied artificial intelligence company that has created a multi-agent neural network that analyzes the world’s informational output, digests it, correlates the various disparate facts and ultimately delivers actionable intelligence across any sector of commerce, industry, society or government possible.
Regardless of the source of this data be it: NASAs satellite feeds, live news, digital radio, video broadcasts, social media twitterings etc or live market data from world exchanges or even historical digitized data banks like the National Library of Congress and thousands of others, they are all relentlessly probed and itemized by a system which is self learning and always hungry for more. Since the system was switched on, an ever growing number of proprietary datasets have been created well over 2 billion as this story is being written. Ok, so Invacio has a lot of information from all over the world: but what exactly is its use? And, what can Invacio do that any other information rich organisation with a decent search engine can’t?
Well, this is where it truly comes into its own you see, it doesn’t pull the information together, stick a label on it and forget about it until someone asks for it. No, Invacio actively seeks to place all the information it holds into context with all the rest so that comparisons, parallels and connections can be created. Why? Because their system is designed to understand the world and guide us where it can. An example of this which was given during the presentation to the United Nations was that of crisis management during the Californian wildfires last year – Within a second of the first tweet relating to the fires starting being sent, Jean (that is what they call the full operational system) was aware and rapidly pulling together every type of relevant information available. Everything from geographical data, historically relevant time based records of vineyards (soil composition, state of vines or ripeness of fruits), meteorological details (live conditions and historical in relation to similar events globally)…… you get the picture.
In the second second Jean would have been able to direct the emergency response and do as much as possible to limit the ongoing damage being caused by the fire by predicting the way the emergency would develop having analysed all available information and extrapolating.
As a bonus, in the 3rd second Jean could have told you whether it was worth buying wine futures or no.
That is one example,imagine the benefits of having that kind of analysing power in your sector:
Hedge funds… highly accurate predictions on shares, indices, commodities and forex (Agnes, Archimedes, Aquila and Tomahawk), Market intelligence… knowing what the world is thinking about your brand, competitor, client or product in real time (Alise), Security… maintaining secure facilities through the application of advanced facial recognition through security cameras(Sauron) or alternatively simply plug your organisation straight into Invacio API and pull out the information you need to make your world a better place.
Invacio ICO Invacio are currently undergoing an ICO (initial coin offering) in order to fund the roll out of various divisions that are underpinned by Jean. The coins sold during the sale will be directly connected to the use of Invacios raft of products. Whether they are used to pay whole subscription fees for AI fintech predictive services or to attract a discount against a corporate market intelligence monitoring account through the Alise division these coins will provide a great amount of utility within the Invacio group.
submitted by InvacioOfficial to u/InvacioOfficial [link] [comments]

How a miner manufacturer from Poland became a terrorist organization in Venezuela

This is cool story about former 100TH mining operation who moved his miners to Venezuela for obvious reasons of low energy costs. The mining farm was recently closed and miners had BioInfoBank logos on them so Nicolas Maduro's govt. extrapolated their involvement into a terrorist organization.
Now there's a shitstorm in Poland because BioInfoBank is a part of Polish Blockchain Accelerator .. or isn't already. Common people now believe this polish research institute is some kind of criminal organization.
Polish community will have a hard time explaining the case to everyone, but obviously it will be used as an argument against polish bitcoin companies already existing here adding to recent hostile approach from banks closing bank accounts of polish exchanges.
EDIT: source http://thebitcoinexaminer.com/venezuelan-police-bust-bitcoin-mining-farm-for-stealing-electricity-razor-forex-blog/
submitted by love_eggs_and_bacon to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

"Beta" factors in Forex?

Is it possible to apply beta risk modeling to forex as do people do in equities? if so:
submitted by taewoo to algotrading [link] [comments]

INVACIO AI Company Makes World Debut In Front Of United Nations

Little Known AI Company Makes World Debut In Front Of United Nations
Founded by William J D West around 5 years ago and developed in stealth mode since then, Invacio is a tech company unlike any other in the world and because of this, it is attracting attention from some fairly high up places. Governmental discussions are ongoing around the world to implement their technology in various ways.
But what is it exactly that invacio do that instigated the invitation to make their worldwide debut presentation (coming out if you will) in front of world leaders at the UNESCAP FDI meeting in Thailand on November the 3rd last year?
The answer to that is quite hard to formulate without going off on multiple tangents all at once, so, I will give a brief outline and then try to cover some more specifics in order that you can try to paint the picture for yourself more clearly…All I will say before launching into this is open your mind and try to see all the potential uses of this technology.
Invacio is primarily an applied artificial intelligence company that has created a multi-agent neural network that analyzes the world’s informational output, digests it, correlates the various disparate facts and ultimately delivers actionable intelligence across any sector of commerce, industry, society or government possible.
Regardless of the source of this data be it: NASAs satellite feeds, live news, digital radio, video broadcasts, social media twitterings etc or live market data from world exchanges or even historical digitized data banks like the National Library of Congress and thousands of others, they are all relentlessly probed and itemized by a system which is self learning and always hungry for more. Since the system was switched on, an ever growing number of proprietary datasets have been created well over 2 billion as this story is being written. Ok, so Invacio has a lot of information from all over the world: but what exactly is its use? And, what can Invacio do that any other information rich organisation with a decent search engine can’t?
Well, this is where it truly comes into its own you see, it doesn’t pull the information together, stick a label on it and forget about it until someone asks for it. No, Invacio actively seeks to place all the information it holds into context with all the rest so that comparisons, parallels and connections can be created. Why? Because their system is designed to understand the world and guide us where it can. An example of this which was given during the presentation to the United Nations was that of crisis management during the Californian wildfires last year – Within a second of the first tweet relating to the fires starting being sent, Jean (that is what they call the full operational system) was aware and rapidly pulling together every type of relevant information available. Everything from geographical data, historically relevant time based records of vineyards (soil composition, state of vines or ripeness of fruits), meteorological details (live conditions and historical in relation to similar events globally)…… you get the picture.
In the second second Jean would have been able to direct the emergency response and do as much as possible to limit the ongoing damage being caused by the fire by predicting the way the emergency would develop having analysed all available information and extrapolating.
As a bonus, in the 3rd second Jean could have told you whether it was worth buying wine futures or no.
That is one example,imagine the benefits of having that kind of analysing power in your sector:
Hedge funds… highly accurate predictions on shares, indices, commodities and forex (Agnes, Archimedes, Aquila and Tomahawk), Market intelligence… knowing what the world is thinking about your brand, competitor, client or product in real time (Alise), Security… maintaining secure facilities through the application of advanced facial recognition through security cameras(Sauron) or alternatively simply plug your organisation straight into Invacio API and pull out the information you need to make your world a better place.
submitted by InvacioOfficial to u/InvacioOfficial [link] [comments]

"Beta" factors in Forex?

Is it possible to apply beta risk modeling to forex as do people do in equities? if so:
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Fourier extrapolation of price – indicator for MetaTrader 5 Индикатор Fourier Extrapolator Fast Fourier Transform use in MQL5 indicator visual test ... Forex And Binary Future Extrapolator Free Download Extrapolator – indicator for MetaTrader 5 ADX con Prime Time Intraday Volatility Extrapolator Extrapolator – indicator for MetaTrader 4 Probando el PrimeTime Intraday Volatility Extrapolator PrimeTime Intraday Volatility Extrapolator - MetaTrader indicator 2.4 Trends, Interpolation and Extrapolation

Extrapolators – Indikator für MetaTrader 5 ist ein Metatrader 5 (MT5) Indikator und die Essenz des Forex-Indikators besteht darin, die akkumulierten Verlaufsdaten zu transformieren. Extrapolators – Indikator für MetaTrader 5 sieht eine Möglichkeit, verschiedene Besonderheiten und Muster in Preisdynamik zu erkennen, die mit dem bloßen Auge nicht zu erkennen sind. Basierend auf diesen ... Extrapolator _-_ sincMA. The accuracy of the indicator is -/10. It’s a leading algorithm. A very complex algorithm based on several standard indicators of technical analysis. It’s able to forecast the price ahead of schedule. Advance or delay is set in the input parameters. It’s better not to change the settings; then, it shows best. The probability of a correct forecast is up to 75%. It ... Fourier_extrapolator.mq4; Fourier Extrapolator.tpl; Free Download Fourier Ekstrapolator. Please wait, we prepare your link. Author: Daniel. My name is Daniel Alard. Already more than 13 years, I trade the forex market. Began my acquaintance with forex back in 2007. Even then, I'm an ambitious young man dreamed of becoming a successful trader and gain financial independence with the help ... Download Forex Extrapolator Indicator.zip; Copy mq4 and ex4 files to your Metatrader Directory / experts / indicators / Copy tpl file (Template) to your Metatrader Directory / templates / Start or restart your Metatrader Client; Select Chart and Timeframe where you want to test your forex indicator; Load indicator on your chart ; How to uninstall Forex Extrapolator Indicator? To shut down an ... Extrapolator is a Metatrader 4 (MT4) indicator and the essence of the forex indicator is to transform the accumulated history data. Extrapolator provides for an opportunity to detect various peculiarities and patterns in price dynamics which are invisible to the naked eye. Extrapolator is a Metatrader 4 (MT4) indicator and the essence of the forex indicator is to transform the accumulated history data. Extrapolator provides for an opportunity to detect various peculiarities and patterns in price dynamics which are invisible to the naked eye. If the Forex market behaved like a function similar to x², there would be some success with this method, but in reality Runge’s phenomenon messes it all up. If we use just 2 last dots to extrapolate, we get a straight line extrapolation, which obviously fails in Forex; if we try to use a big amount of points to “improve” the input data for extrapolation, we fail because of Runge’s ... Extrapolator is a result of my long-term research in the area of the Timeseries Forecasting. - Free download of the 'Extrapolator' indicator by 'gpwr' for MetaTrader 4 in the MQL5 Code Base, 2008.12.25 Forex MT4 Indikatoren – Anleitung herunterladen. Extrapolators – Indikator für MetaTrader 4 ist ein Metatrader 4 (MT4) Indikator und die Essenz des Forex-Indikators besteht darin, die akkumulierten Verlaufsdaten zu transformieren. Extrapolators – Indikator für MetaTrader 4 sieht eine Möglichkeit, verschiedene Besonderheiten und Muster in Preisdynamik zu erkennen, die mit dem bloßen ... Description: Fourier Extrapolator is dynamic extrapolator based on Fourier transforms. The indicator shows the projected price movement based on the consistent calculation of the Fourier waves. This indicator refers to the type of "outrunning", which draws on the right side of the graph line (default: green), showing the alleged price movement in the future. Default Fourier Exstrapolator ...

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Fourier extrapolation of price – indicator for MetaTrader 5

Download Extrapolator – indicator for MetaTrader 5 - https://forexmt4indicators.com/extrapolator-indicator-for-metatrader-5/ -----... Forex Indicator for Metatrader 4 &5 (MT4 &5): Reversal Diamond Indicator (Approved by MQL5 official) - Duration: 40:10. Reversal Diamond Indicator 158,693 views 40:10 El PrimeTime Intraday Volatility Extrapolator es un algoritmo gráfico que te pronostica hacia donde va el mercado. Es ideal para Opciones Binarias https://me... Forex Indicator for Metatrader 4 &5 (MT4 &5): Reversal Diamond Indicator (Approved by MQL5 official) - Duration: 40:10. Reversal Diamond Indicator 163,545 views 40:10 This is an acelerated visual test in MT5 about the Fourier extrapolation of price indicator that you can find at https://www.mql5.com/en/code/130 Esta es una... 95% Winning Forex Trading Formula - Beat The Market Maker📈 - Duration: 37:53. TRADE ATS Recommended for you. 37:53. Machine Learning Data science interview questions - What is Interpolation and ... Индикатор Fourier Extrapolator. Подробности по адресу http://womanforex.ru/fourier-extrapolator.html Join Our New Binary Option free Signal And bfmts And Forex Free Mt4 Group Here: https://t.me/joinchat/AAAAAFeos2UeYqG2h4ThLw If you need indicator free downl... We aim to be a place where every forex traders can gain free resources about trading. -About-Extrapolator – indicator for MetaTrader 4 Forex Strategies Forex Indicators Forex Systems-Connect ... El Indicador ADX con ayuda del Prime Time Intraday Volatility Extrapolator https://mercadosbinarios.wordpress.co...

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